Spencer Pratt & The LA Election: Real Numbers

🗂️ Background: Former reality star, Spencer Pratt, is running for Mayor of Los Angeles, California. At the end of Election Day (for primary nominations), Pratt was in second place. However, third-place candidate Nithya Raman nearly doubled her vote total as ballots were counted in the days after polls closed on June 2 – placing Raman ahead of Pratt and fueling accusations of fraud.

As of publication, votes are still being tallied (mail-in ballots are accepted until the end of today, June 9, and officials have until July 2 to complete counting); however, the most recent totals (released June 8, 4:48pm PT) show Raman with a lead that Pratt would need an unlikely break to overcome (which is why the press called the race). As only the top two contenders advance to the General Election, Pratt's supporters are now calling for an investigation.

Who is running for LA Mayor?

Fourteen candidates are running in the Primary Nominating Election. In the absence of a majority-votes winner, the top two candidates will proceed to the General Election. 

The top three vote-holders are:

• Karen Bass (current LA Mayor),
• Nithya Raman, and 
• Spencer Pratt.

What are the political affiliations of the top candidates?

The LA mayoral race is non-partisan; nothing on the election ballot indicates party affiliation. However, party details are publicly available:

• Karen Bass: Democrat (endorsed by the Democratic Party)
• Nithya Raman: Democrat (member of the Democratic Socialists of America) 
• Spencer Pratt: Republican (not endorsed by either party; stated during Fox News interview: "I am a registered Republican [...] All the people financing me are Democrats.")

What do the numbers say? 

Pratt held a significant lead (37K+ votes) over Raman at the close of Election Day. However, in the following days, Raman gained more than twice as many votes as Pratt. Between June 3-8, Raman’s vote total grew almost three times faster than Pratt’s (increasing 91.6% vs. 32.2%). 

Daily votes for each candidate – from Election Day through June 8 – are listed below (for the number of ballots that still need counted, see “What votes can be counted after Election Day?” following the Investigation and Timeline sections):

NOTE: While L.A. County provides current candidate-level tallies, archives of previous (timestamped) tallies are not published. For this reason, totals were reconstructed from a public GitHub scraper that archives API snapshots of L.A. County data; cross-checks against current L.A. County data and reporting by both local and national press confirm listed entries are correct. Quick Conservative has submitted a Public Records Act Request to L.A. County for official verification. 

Will there be an investigation?

On June 5, Bill Essayli – First Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Central District of California –  announced:

"California’s election system has serious structural vulnerabilities. Universal vote-by-mail with no voter ID requirements creates conditions where fraud can go undetected and unpunished, eroding public confidence.

Without commenting on any specific investigation, my office has multiple election fraud investigations underway in coordination with FBI Los Angeles. We will follow the evidence wherever it leads and prosecute any violations of federal election law to the fullest extent."

Harmeet Dhillon, Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights, supported Essayli's announcement, asking: "[W]hy does California (& many other states) hide their voter rolls from the federal government…?"

What is the election timeline? 

• June 2 – Primary Nominating Election (mail-in ballots must be postmarked on or before Election Day)
• June 9 – Deadline to receive mail-in ballots
• July 2 – Deadline for county officials to complete final results
• July 10 – Secretary of State certifies the official primary winner
• November 3 – General Municipal Election

What votes can be counted after Election Day?

The following votes may still be counted during the "canvass period" (between Election Day and the deadline for officials to complete final results):

• Mail-in ballots (that meet deadline eligibility requirements)
• Conditional voter registration (i.e., "same-day registration") ballots
• Provisional ballots
• Ballots requiring additional review or verification

NOTE: "Provisional ballots" are cast by voters who either 1) believe they are registered to vote even though their names are not on the list at their polling place, or 2) registered to vote by mail but now want to vote in person (and officials are unable to verify that they have not returned their vote-by-mail ballot). Provisional ballots are placed in a special envelope; officials later assess eligibility.

Election totals are updated every day during the canvass period between 4:00 - 5:00pm PT (see schedule). 

As of June 8 (4:48pm PT), the Los Angeles County Clerk estimates 148,100 ballots are still outstanding countywide; however, since estimates are not available by jurisdiction, the exact number of outstanding LA mayoral ballots is unclear.

Who can vote in the LA Mayor election?

California law states that voters must be U.S. citizens and California residents; however, voters are not required to provide proof of citizenship.

According to the California Secretary of State, 2,227,227 Los Angeles voters are registered to participate in the current election, including:

• Democrats: 1,228,655
• Republicans: 327,423
• American Independents: 74,583
• Green: 12,048

As of June 8 (4:48pm PT), 804,180 votes have been counted.

Who is winning right now?

Bass and Raman look like they will defeat Pratt and advance to the General Election. The most current vote tallies are available here.

✏️ The Left Has a Point: Several social media posts claim a vote update showed Pratt receiving zero votes – a statistical improbability – during a "ballot dump." However, L.A. County spokesperson Michael Sanchez refuted the claim, telling the Los Angeles Times: "In every single result update that we released on election night and since election night, [Pratt] has received votes."

The confusion appears linked to vote totals reported by the Associated Press (AP), not L.A. County officials. As the AP explains:

"The AP vote count receives updates as provided by election officials and adds them to our vote count. What happened in this case is that there was a lag in an automated update [...] specifically, an electronic update from the Los Angeles County website pulled in votes for only one group of candidates, including Karen Bass and Nithya Raman. Exactly one minute later, the electronic update picked up the votes for another group of candidates including Spencer Pratt."

Don't Trust the Robots

Running to AI to learn more about the election? Best to exercise caution. In a 2024 report analyzing the performance of five AI models (Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini, OpenAI’s GPT-4, Meta’s Llama 2, and Mistral’s Mixtral), researchers with AI Democracy Projects found that over half of all responses to election-related queries were inaccurate.

...And, on a related (and totally coincidental) note, here's a shameless plug for our new QC merch ;-)

Feel free to grab one from the shop!

Father/Daughter Dance Behind Bars

😇 Wanted to quickly share one of my favorite organizations: God Behind Bars :-) 

📊 According to statistics published by God Behind Bars (and confirmed by Quick Conservative):

💔 Less than 20% of inmates are serving life sentences, and up to as many as 95% of all incarcerated individuals will be released back to society at some point. About 37% of those released will return to prison within three years, and over 80% will be rearrested within ten years. 

⭐️ God Behind Bars seeks to address this heartbreaking recidivism problem by focusing on the spiritual needs of inmates and their families.

🎥 I can’t encourage you enough to watch this video of a father/daughter dance they organized – it’s an amazing program and there’s tons of ways to get involved!

Bible Verse

✝️ Be anxious for nothing, but in everything by prayer and supplication, with thanksgiving, let your requests be made known to God; and the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and minds through Christ Jesus. – Philippians 4:6-7

We had an INCREDIBLE time celebrating our relaunch at Turning Point USA's Women's Leadership Summit this past weekend in San Antonio, Texas – thank you to TPUSA and everyone who stopped by to show support! Will post pictures soon :-) Have a great day!